Why Vladimir Putin is the Major Beneficiary of the Gaza Conflict

Strategic Exploitation of Western Missteps and UN Paralysis

Vladimir Putin has strategically capitalized on Western inconsistencies and the paralysis of the United Nations, deriving significant benefits from the ongoing Gaza conflict. Over the past 25 years, Putin has methodically reasserted Russia’s influence in the Middle East and Europe by exploiting U.S. missteps.

Historical Context

  • In 2001, Putin aligned his crackdown on Chechen nationalism with George W. Bush’s “global war on terror.”
  • By 2011, he launched his own “war on terrorism” in Syria, with substantial support from Iran.
  • In 2013, Obama’s refusal to strike Bashar Al-Assad after chemical attacks emboldened Putin to annex Crimea and support the conflict in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

Syrian and Ukrainian Interventions

  • Putin’s 2015 intervention in Syria strengthened his collaboration with Iran, particularly in drone warfare, which proved advantageous during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
  • The warfare techniques refined in Syria have had devastating effects on Ukraine.

Strategic Exploitation

  • Western leaders have treated Europe and the Middle East as separate theaters, while Putin has adeptly navigated and influenced both.
  • Netanyahu initially believed Moscow could counter Iran’s actions in Syria but later realized that Israel’s operational independence was constrained by Russian approval.

Putin’s strategic maneuvers have placed Israel in a vulnerable position and underscore the broader implications of his growing influence in the region.

Putin’s Calculations: Support for Action in Rafah Linked to U.S. Politics

When Putin intervened in Syria in 2015, bolstering cooperation with Iran in UAV technology, he anticipated its strategic value during the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Despite this, Western leaders continued to segregate European and Middle Eastern affairs, allowing Putin to manipulate both arenas deftly.

Netanyahu initially believed only Moscow could curb Iran’s Syria intervention, later realizing Israel’s dependence and constrained actions. Israel’s subsequent attacks in Syria further weakened its military support in Ukraine.

However, this geopolitical dance didn’t hinder Netanyahu’s solidarity with Israel after the October 7, 2023 Hamas massacre. Yet, he declined Zelensky’s visit to Tel Aviv, wary of offending Putin, underscoring Moscow’s influence.

Putin’s interest in an Israeli Rafah attack is two-fold: to amplify criticism of Biden and to pave the way for Trump’s return to the White House, supported by Biden’s Democratic donors. These donors, including Gates, Soros, and Rockefeller, fund organizations fueling pro-Hamas protests, aiming to destabilize Biden’s administration.

Behind these protests lies the Jewish Voice for Peace, backed by Soros and Gates via the Tides Foundation. The Susan and Nick Pritzker Foundation, supporting Biden, also funds these protests. These movements aim to tarnish Biden’s image, aligning with Putin’s goal of weakening Biden’s presidency.

With the complexities of U.S. politics and international relations, Putin’s strategic maneuvering underscores the intricate web of global power dynamics.


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