Here is a theoretical analysis:
China wants the TSMC factories.
Historically, Taiwan belongs to China; there is no doubt about it.
Think about it logically: the Taiwanese don’t speak German, French, or Spanish – they Speak Chinese!!
The Americans realize that China has grown too much and is no longer the attraction it used to be.
In addition, the Americans understand that the concept: of development in the USA and production in Taiwan (which is China’s backyard) of chips constitutes a national security danger to the existence of the USA.
The Americans Know which way the wind is blowing and that returning the production of chips to the USA does not fall in importance from their development in the USA.
The Chinese desire not to be dependent on the US is very strong.
This can be seen in the coalition that is forming between China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and several other countries…
The coalition is creating for itself a “European Bloc” or to be precise, a “Euro-Asian Bloc”.
The Europeans Together with the Americans, understand from the war in Ukraine that the sanctions do not help.
Is Intel “threatening” Germany because of energy prices?
Could there be other reasons??
After a brief explanation and general background, we will begin analyzing the situation:
The US has no desire nor financial interest to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack.
Here are some reasons:
- The US wants China to take over the TSMC factory in Taiwan; this move would give the US an interest in imposing an embargo plus sanctions on Chinese components, a move the Americans have been trying to do for quite some time. This move requires Global and Western backing.
- The US wants TSMC in Taiwan to stop producing: and all production to move to the US – This move will create more jobs, more income, and; increase national security.
- Any damage to the Taiwanese production capacity will cause a vacuum that the Americans will fill both – in terms of production and engineering.
As everyone knows, China copies everything including; patents, engineering, and intellectual property; That is why there is no meaning to trade agreements and fair trade with China.
As of this moment – a cold war is starting between China and Russia on the one hand and the USA and the entire West on the other.
From that, it can be concluded that the following scenario has a high probability of occurring behind the scenes:
There will be a meeting between the representatives of China and the USA – both have a common economic interest.
The common interest is for China to occupy Taiwan – This is a win-win situation for China and the USA.
The conceivable scenario is holding talks in which the American side turns to the Chinese side:
Americans will allow the Chinese to invade Taiwan. The Americans will not intervene militarily; they will only provide weapons to the Taiwanese (to make a living from selling weapons). The Chinese will conquer Taiwan and appropriate the TSMC factories.
The Americans will undertake not to bomb the TSMC factories; but cannot guarantee that Taiwan will not destroy the factories.
Therefore they must bring in spies to prepare the ground for the attack.
The Americans will impose sanctions on China; in the field of chips.
The Chinese will get the production technologies in the TSMC factories in their hands or what is left of them. In practice, Taiwan will become China, including its citizens. At the same time, the Chinese will allow the escape of people from Taiwan to the West (Key people and interested parties will immigrate to the U.S. and bring their brains into the U.S.). In exchange for this – The Chinese receive Chinese Taiwan politically, economically, and strategically.
In this way, everyone gets what they want in no time; And the weapon industries will respect and make money from both sides.
And the Americans avoid war.
Many American companies outsource and have outsourced production from Taiwan in recent months to India and elsewhere temporarily or permanently.
One thing is indisputable – the chips are the NEW oil of the future, and the USA is the Saudi Arabia of the world.
Ahead of the catastrophe when it comes, it’s only a matter of patience!
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