Ruble Bears Targeting Fresh Year-to-Date Low Despite Wagner Group’s Abandoned Russian Mutiny

During Monday’s European session, the USD/RUB pair sees an uptick in bids. Despite a mercenary group, Wagner Group, abandoning their mutiny against Moscow, the Russian Ruble (RUB) pair fails to inspire confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin. The underwhelming performance of oil prices further weighs down the RUB price, Russia’s primary export commodity.

According to Reuters, Russia aims to restore calm after Wagner Group mercenaries’ failed mutiny over the weekend, while Western allies evaluate how President Vladimir Putin will reestablish authority and its implications for the conflict in Ukraine. The news reports that the Wagner fighters withdrew from Rostov, a southern Russian city, and returned to their bases on Saturday; under a deal guaranteeing their safety.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil remains uncertain at around $69.50, following; an enormous weekly loss since early May amidst concerns over China’s economic growth. Despite positive developments suggesting additional stimulus from Beijing, global rating agency S&P has recently downgraded China’s GDP growth forecasts 2023 from 5.5% to 5.2%. Consequently, the oil market pays little attention to hopes of increased oil demand and supply shortages supported by OPEC and Russia.

On another front, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) relinquishes its first weekly gain in four, trading around 102.70, as it bears the weight of mild optimism surrounding China and diminishing geopolitical concerns related to Russia. Additionally, consolidation before this week’s U.S. inflation data and central bankers’ speeches puts downward pressure on the DXY.

It is important to note that Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a hawkish position on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policies in his testimony – last week. Positive U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) statistics and remarks from Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in favor of two rate
increases strengthened this idea.

Looking ahead, the USD/RUB pair’s weekly movements will be influenced by geopolitical news, U.S. inflation indicators, and multiple central bankers’ speeches at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum.

USD/RUB Long (Buy)
Enter At: 86.2146
T.P_1: 90.0354
T.P_2: 94.4921
T.P_3: 98.9945
S.L: 73.0982


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