According to three government sources, India is set to ban mills from exporting sugar in the upcoming season starting in October due to low cane yields caused by a lack of rain. This will be the first time – In seven years that shipments will be halted.
source: tradingeconomics.com
India’s absence from the global market is expected to increase benchmark prices in New York and London, which are already trading at multi-year highs, leading to concerns about further inflation in global food markets.
The government’s focus is on fulfilling local sugar requirements and producing ethanol from surplus sugarcane. As a result, there will not be enough sugar to allocate for export quotas.
During the current season, mills were only allowed to export 6.1 million tonnes of sugar, whereas the previous season saw a record 11.1 million tonnes being sold. In 2016, India imposed a 20% tax on sugar exports to reduce overseas sales.
Monsoon rains in the top cane-growing districts of Maharashtra and Karnataka have been 50% below average so far this year, which will reduce sugar output in the 2023/24 season and even impact planting for the 2024/25 season.
This has caused local sugar prices to rise to their highest level in two years, leading to concerns about food inflation.
India’s sugar production could fall 3.3% to 31.7 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season.
The government aims to ensure sufficient supplies and stable prices while allowing mills to export large volumes of sugar during the past two years.
India also recently imposed a ban on non-basmati white rice exports and a 40% duty on onion exports to calm food prices ahead of state elections later this year.
Sugar Long (Buy)
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