Economic Rubik-kocka: Recession and Inflation Pressure Economy and Forint

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Hungary is grappling with a double challenge as its economy enters a fourth consecutive quarter of recession while grappling with soaring inflation. The GDP contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.4% annually, marking the longest such downturn since 1995. Industries and market-based services saw contractions, though agriculture provided some relief. The disappointing results have led to revised growth projections, casting doubt on the government’s 1.5% GDP growth target.

source: tradingeconomics.com


source: tradingeconomics.com

Simultaneously, Hungary is contending with the highest inflation rate in the EU, reaching 19.9% in June. COVID-19 supply chain disruptions, Ukraine conflict, pre-election fiscal stimulus, external deficit, and drought have contributed to this inflation. The response has included introducing an 18% one-day deposit rate, subsequently lowered to 15%, to curb inflation.

The banking sector faces the challenge of high-interest rates supporting net interest income while dealing with a windfall tax and tightening regulations. Despite increased Income, the sector’s after-tax profit fell by 5% in 2022 due to factors like loss provisioning and the bank levy.

The central bank’s expected continued monetary easing could lower interest rates to around 5.5% by late 2024. While this might reduce net interest margins, government-backed lending schemes are seen sustaining lending volumes.


source: tradingeconomics.com

To add complexity, the Hungarian Forint (HUF) is influenced by these economic challenges and the central bank’s inflation management efforts. The Forint’s volatility stems from the interplay of economic factors, policy decisions, and market sentiments. While Central Bank measures aim to stabilize it, ongoing recession and external pressures complicate matters.

The Forint’s stability faces risks due to the economic downturn, prolonged recession, and high inflation, impacting investor confidence. Currency depreciation is possible, driven by internal Economic struggles and external global conditions.

However, the central bank’s efforts to ease monetary policy might alleviate pressure on the Forint. Gradual interest rate reductions could support the currency and financial markets, contingent on broader economic recovery and investor perceptions.

In conclusion, Hungary’s intertwined challenges of economic downturn and high inflation impact its banking sector and currency. Effective management of these issues, economic recovery, and policy adjustments will be crucial to Hungary’s path toward stability and growth. The performance of the Forint will be a key indicator of the country’s resilience and overall economic health.

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