Economic Rubik-kocka: Recession and Inflation Pressure Economy and Forint

Hungary is grappling with a double challenge as its economy enters a fourth consecutive quarter of recession while grappling with soaring inflation. The GDP contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.4% annually, marking the longest such downturn since 1995. Industries and market-based services saw contractions, though agriculture provided some relief. The disappointing results have led to revised growth projections, casting doubt on the government’s 1.5% GDP growth target.



Simultaneously, Hungary is contending with the highest inflation rate in the EU, reaching 19.9% in June. COVID-19 supply chain disruptions, Ukraine conflict, pre-election fiscal stimulus, external deficit, and drought have contributed to this inflation. The response has included introducing an 18% one-day deposit rate, subsequently lowered to 15%, to curb inflation.

The banking sector faces the challenge of high-interest rates supporting net interest income while dealing with a windfall tax and tightening regulations. Despite increased Income, the sector’s after-tax profit fell by 5% in 2022 due to factors like loss provisioning and the bank levy.

The central bank’s expected continued monetary easing could lower interest rates to around 5.5% by late 2024. While this might reduce net interest margins, government-backed lending schemes are seen sustaining lending volumes.


To add complexity, the Hungarian Forint (HUF) is influenced by these economic challenges and the central bank’s inflation management efforts. The Forint’s volatility stems from the interplay of economic factors, policy decisions, and market sentiments. While Central Bank measures aim to stabilize it, ongoing recession and external pressures complicate matters.

The Forint’s stability faces risks due to the economic downturn, prolonged recession, and high inflation, impacting investor confidence. Currency depreciation is possible, driven by internal Economic struggles and external global conditions.

However, the central bank’s efforts to ease monetary policy might alleviate pressure on the Forint. Gradual interest rate reductions could support the currency and financial markets, contingent on broader economic recovery and investor perceptions.

In conclusion, Hungary’s intertwined challenges of economic downturn and high inflation impact its banking sector and currency. Effective management of these issues, economic recovery, and policy adjustments will be crucial to Hungary’s path toward stability and growth. The performance of the Forint will be a key indicator of the country’s resilience and overall economic health.


All information on this website is of a general nature. The information is not adapted to conditions that are specific to your person or entity. The information provided can not be considered as personal, professional or legal advice or investment advice to the user.

This website and all information is intended for educational purposes only and does not give financial advice. Signal Mastermind Signals is not a service to provide legal and financial advice; any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author (not advice or financial advice in any sense, and in the sense of any act, ordinance or law of any country) and must not be used for financial activities. Signal Mastermind Signals does not offer, operate or provide financial, brokerage, commercial or investment services and is not a financial advisor. Rather, Signal Mastermind Signals is an educational site and a platform for exchanging Forex information. Whenever information is disclosed, whether express or implied, about profit or revenue, it is not a guarantee. No method or trading system ensures that it will generate a profit, so always remember that trade can lead to a loss. Trading responsibility, whether resulting in profits or losses, is yours and you must agree not to hold Signal Mastermind Signals or other information providers that are responsible in any way whatsoever. The use of the system means that the user accepts Disclaimer and Terms of Use.

Signal Mastermind Signals is not represented as a registered investment consultant or brokerage dealer nor offers to buy or sell any of the financial instruments mentioned in the service offered.

While Signal Mastermind Signals believes that the content provided is accurate, there are no explicit or implied warranties of accuracy. The information provided is believed to be reliable; Signal Mastermind Signals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Third parties refer to Signal Mastermind Signals to provide technology and information if a third party fails, and then there is a risk that the information may be delayed or not delivered at all.
All information and comments contained on this website, including but not limited to, opinions, analyzes, news, prices, research, and general, do not constitute investment advice or an invitation to buy or sell any type of instrument. Signal Mastermind Signals assumes no responsibility for any loss or damage that may result, directly or indirectly, from the use or dependence on such information.

All information contained on this web site is a personal opinion or belief of the author. None of these data is a recommendation or financial advice in any sense, also within the meaning of any commercial act or law. Writers, publishers and affiliates of Signal Mastermind Signals are not responsible for your trading in any way.

The information and opinions contained in the site are provided for information only and for educational reasons, should never be considered as direct or indirect advice to open a trading account and / or invest money in Forex trading with any Forex company . Signal Mastermind Signals assumes no responsibility for any decisions taken by the user to create a merchant account with any of the brokers listed on this website. Anyone who decides to set up a trading account or use the services, free of charge or paid, to any of the Broker companies mentioned on this website, bears full responsibility for their actions.

Any institution that offers a service and is listed on this website, including forex brokers, financial companies and other institutions, is present only for informational purposes. All ratings, ratings, banners, reviews, or other information found for any of the above-mentioned institutions are provided in a strictly objective manner and according to the best possible reflection of the materials on the official website of the company.

Forex/CFD trading is potentially high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high level of leverage can work both for and against traders. Before each Forex/CFD investment, you should carefully consider your goals, past experience and risk level. The opinions and data contained on this site should not be considered as suggestions or advice for the sale or purchase of currency or other instruments. Past results do not show or guarantee future results.
Neither Signal Mastermind Signals nor its affiliates ensure the accuracy of the content provided on this Site. You explicitly agree that viewing, visiting or using this website is at your own risk.

Translate »