Recent data from NielsenIQ’s consumer intelligence database reveals that chocolate prices have increased by 14% over the past year. Market experts predict that prices may continue to rise due to limited supplies of cocoa, a crucial ingredient in chocolate production.
According to Sergey Chetvertakov, a Principal Research Analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, the cocoa market has seen a significant increase in prices. This is the second year in a row that the market has experienced a deficit, which is expected to result in abnormally low levels of cocoa ending stocks.
Chetvertakov predicts that the El Nino weather pattern will trigger a decline in precipitation and bring about powerful Harmattan gusts in West Africa, which is home to a considerable percentage of the world’s cocoa plantations. The global production of cocoa is heavily reliant on Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which jointly account for more than 60% of the total output.
The El Nino weather pattern inevitably leads to hotter and drier weather conditions in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
According to Chetvertakov, a deficit in the cocoa market, next season (October to September) could result in a decline, potentially causing cocoa futures to reach as high as $3,600 per metric ton.
As production costs, energy expenses, and interest rates rise, consumers may face higher prices for their favorite chocolate treats.
According to the food commodity price database Mintec, cocoa butter accounts for a significant portion of chocolate bar production and has experienced a 20.5% price hike this year.
The consumption of cocoa in Europe is currently at a “near record high.” This region happens to be the largest importer of this commodity across the globe.
Cocoa Long (Buy)
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