China-Russia Alliance: Implications for Global Security and Taiwan’s Future

China-Russia Alliance: A Strategic Partnership with Global Implications

The China-Russia alliance has emerged as one of the most significant geopolitical dynamics in recent years, with profound implications for global stability and the balance of power. This alliance has gained heightened attention as both countries seek to challenge Western influence in regions such as Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Indo-Pacific. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 and the increasing military and economic cooperation between China and Russia have raised concerns about the broader impact of this partnership on global security, particularly for Taiwan and other democratic nations in the Asia-Pacific.

China’s Perspective on Ukraine: A Test Case for Taiwan

China’s close observation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is no secret. For Chinese leaders, the events in Ukraine serve as a “test case” for their own designs on Taiwan. Since the civil war in 1949, China has viewed Taiwan as a rogue province that must be unified with the mainland, even by force if necessary. For years, Beijing has threatened military action against Taiwan, and its ambitions have only grown as China’s global influence and military capabilities have expanded.

Taiwanese Deputy Foreign Minister Roy Chun Lee, in a recent interview, highlighted how China is scrutinizing the war in Ukraine and the global response to it as a potential preview for its own military actions. According to Lee, the war in Ukraine provides a critical example of how the West might respond in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The world’s reaction to Ukraine could inform Beijing’s decision-making and strategic calculations in the years to come.

China is closely monitoring the battlefield performance of Russian forces, the resilience of the Ukrainian defense, and most importantly, the level of Western support for Ukraine. The degree of commitment from the West in supporting Ukraine—both in terms of military aid and economic sanctions against Russia—could heavily influence China’s approach to Taiwan.

The Strategic Importance of the China-Russia Alliance

The China-Russia alliance is not merely a short-term partnership of convenience; it represents a deeper alignment of interests between two powerful authoritarian regimes. Both China and Russia share the goal of countering Western influence and establishing their dominance in their respective regions. For Russia, that means reasserting control over Eastern Europe and former Soviet states, while for China, it means extending its influence in the Asia-Pacific and, most notably, reclaiming Taiwan.

While both countries operate under different circumstances, their alliance is strengthened by their mutual desire to weaken U.S. and European influence in global affairs. As the West continues to back Ukraine in its defense against Russia, China stands alongside Moscow, offering economic and diplomatic support that helps Russia evade the full impact of international sanctions.

Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow, solidified through numerous high-level meetings between President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin, has only grown since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. While China has not directly supported Russia’s military invasion, it has provided crucial support through economic ties, including purchasing Russian oil and gas, which has helped Moscow weather the impact of sanctions. Moreover, China has been reluctant to criticize Russia’s actions on the global stage, signaling its tacit approval of Russia’s efforts to challenge Western-led international norms.

This partnership has extended beyond economic cooperation to joint military exercises. The Chinese and Russian navies have conducted several joint drills in the past 12 months, particularly in the East China Sea. These exercises, which simulate cooperation in naval warfare and defense, are seen as a show of strength and a warning to the West that the China-Russia alliance is prepared to act in concert to defend their interests.

The Taiwan Dilemma: Lessons from Ukraine

For Taiwan, the Russia-Ukraine war has been a stark reminder of its own precarious situation. With the specter of a Chinese invasion looming large, Taipei has been carefully analyzing the war to learn how best to prepare for its own defense. Taiwanese officials, including Deputy Foreign Minister Lee, have stressed that the ongoing war has a direct impact on Taiwan, as it demonstrates the potential support the island nation might receive from democratic allies like the United States, Japan, and European nations in the event of an invasion by China.

Lee and other officials have urged the West to continue its support for Ukraine, arguing that it is critical not just for Ukraine’s survival, but also for deterring China from launching military aggression against Taiwan. The logic is simple: A united and committed Western response to Russian aggression in Ukraine can send a strong message to Beijing that the West will defend democratic nations under threat, including Taiwan.

Taipei is also wary of making the same mistakes that Western nations made in the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For years, diplomatic efforts to appease Moscow failed to prevent the war, and many experts believe that the West’s reluctance to impose stronger sanctions earlier only emboldened Russia. Taiwanese officials are determined not to allow a similar situation to unfold with China. Instead, they are advocating for stronger international solidarity and military preparedness to deter any potential Chinese aggression.

The Growing Divide in the West: A Challenge for Taiwan

While there is broad consensus in the West about supporting Ukraine, there are growing divisions within Western countries over how long this support can continue. In the United States, some Republican lawmakers have argued that the U.S. should scale back its military aid to Ukraine, suggesting that resources should instead be directed toward bolstering Taiwan’s defenses. Former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, both prominent figures in the Republican Party, have questioned the extent of U.S. involvement in Ukraine, raising concerns that future support for Kyiv could be in jeopardy.

Taiwanese officials, however, have rejected the notion that aiding Ukraine detracts from supporting Taiwan. According to Deputy Foreign Minister Lee, defending Ukraine is the best way to deter Chinese aggression, as it prevents China from seeing a divided or weakened West. He insists that the more united the West is in supporting Ukraine, the less likely it is that China will take aggressive military action against Taiwan.

China’s Potential Military Strategy for Taiwan

While the China-Russia alliance provides significant geopolitical leverage for both nations, Beijing is likely to pursue its own course of action in any future conflict over Taiwan. Despite the close ties between China and Russia, Lee and other experts believe that China is more likely to act unilaterally if it decides to move on Taiwan. China has developed an impressive military capacity capable of enforcing a blockade of Taiwan without direct assistance from Russia.

A blockade, rather than a full-scale invasion, is seen as the most likely scenario for a Chinese military operation against Taiwan. China’s military exercises in recent years have often simulated such a blockade, effectively cutting off Taiwan from the rest of the world while avoiding a direct confrontation with the U.S. or other Western powers.

In August 2022, following a controversial visit by then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei, China held live-fire exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan. The exercises demonstrated China’s ability to encircle Taiwan militarily and disrupt its trade and communications with the outside world. Such a move would cripple Taiwan’s economy and force the island to negotiate on Beijing’s terms without the need for a costly and risky invasion.

The Future of the China-Russia Alliance and Global Security

The China-Russia alliance is shaping up to be one of the most consequential partnerships in global politics. As both nations seek to challenge the U.S.-led international order, their cooperation has the potential to reshape the balance of power in key regions, including Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific.

For Taiwan, the implications of this alliance are clear. As long as China can count on Russia’s support, it will be emboldened in its efforts to assert control over Taiwan and extend its influence in the region. The West’s ability to counter this alliance will depend on maintaining a united front, both in supporting Ukraine and in preparing for the possibility of conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

The future of global security hinges on how the West responds to the challenges posed by the China-Russia alliance. By learning from the war in Ukraine and strengthening alliances in both Europe and Asia, democratic nations can deter aggression and ensure that the principles of sovereignty and self-determination are upheld in the face of authoritarian expansion.

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China Sees Invasion Of Ukraine As ‘Test Case’ For Its Own Designs, Taiwan Warns