Rabobank economists present a constructive outlook for the Pound Sterling (GBP) in 2024, citing several factors that could lead to its appreciation.
Anticipated Strengthening Against Euro:
Rabobank expects the Euro (EUR) to weaken against the Pound, with the EUR/GBP exchange rate potentially reaching 0.8400 by the latter half of the year. This indicates a strengthening GBP.
Steady Interest Rate Policy:
Rabobank forecasts that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its current interest rate policy until September 2024. This contrasts with the potential for rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June, creating a more attractive interest rate environment for GBP-denominated assets.
Support for GBP Appreciation: Several factors are expected to provide moderate support for the Pound:
- Favorable Interest Rate Differential: The anticipated divergence in monetary policy between the BoE and other major central banks could make GBP-denominated investments comparatively more attractive, boosting demand for the Pound.
- Signs of UK Economic Improvement: Positive developments in the UK economy could further bolster confidence in the Pound.
- Stable Political Landscape: The expectation of a less volatile political environment in the UK, potentially due to an uneventful election, could mitigate uncertainty and encourage investment, aiding the Pound.
Nuanced Long-Term Forecast:
While Rabobank predicts a long-term uptrend for GBP, they acknowledge the possibility of short-term fluctuations, particularly in the next 1-3 months, due to potential periods of broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength.
In conclusion, Rabobank’s analysis suggests a potential appreciation of the Pound Sterling against both the Euro and the US Dollar in the coming year. However, short-term volatility remains a possibility due to fluctuations in the USD.
EUR/GBP Short (Sell)
Enter At: 0.85185
T.P_1: 0.84909
T.P_2: 0.84542
T.P_3: 0.84136
T.P_4: 0.83840
T.P_5: 0.83488
S.L: 0.86549
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