Brent crude oil prices have witnessed a significant upsurge in recent weeks, reaching their highest level since October 2023. This surge can be attributed to two primary factors: escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent limitations on global crude oil supply.
Geopolitical Risks Stoke Market Anxiety
The recent events that have unfolded in the Middle East have caused a sense of fear and uncertainty in the oil market. Israel’s airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, followed by Iran’s threats to retaliate, has caused concerns about the possibility of a wider regional conflict. This conflict could potentially disrupt critical oil supply routes. Additionally, the drone attack launched by Ukraine on a major Russian oil refinery, although resulting in minimal damage, highlights the vulnerability of oil infrastructure in conflict zones. As a result, risk premiums associated with oil production have increased, leading to a rise in prices.
Supply Constraints Collide with Rebounding Demand
Global oil demand is exhibiting signs of recuperation, particularly with initial indications of improvement in China’s manufacturing activity. However, the limited production increases planned by OPEC+ until June are unlikely to meet this growing demand. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to exert continued upward pressure on prices, despite some analysts cautiously optimistic about a potential price decline due to a deceleration in China’s oil demand growth.
OPEC+ Meeting in Focus
The market eagerly awaits the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, expecting the group to maintain its current production strategy. However, the evolving geopolitical landscape and the potential for disruptions to oil infrastructure due to ongoing conflicts remain significant uncertainties that could significantly impact oil prices.
Future Outlook
The future of Brent crude oil prices will be influenced by several factors such as geopolitical events, decisions taken during the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, and the speed of global economic recovery, particularly in China. While some analysts predict a return to the $75-$80 per barrel range, the current market situation suggests that prices will continue to rise in the short term.
Brent Long (Buy)
Enter At: 89.76
T.P_1: 90.98
T.P_2: 93.47
T.P_3: 95.79
T.P_4: 98.49
T.P_5: 101.97
T.P_6: 105.07
T.P_7: 108.01
T.P_8: 111.13
T.P_9: 113.63
T.P_10: 116.13
T.P_11: 119.65
T.P_12: 122.93
S.L: 78.79
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